Brazil and the New Global Energy Map: Opportunities and Risks

By Laís Víctor – Executive Director of Partnerships and Energy Specialist

The new global energy order is being shaped by an unprecedented convergence of energy sovereignty, industrial competitiveness, and decarbonization. What the world is witnessing is not merely the replacement of energy sources, but a profound reconfiguration of power flows, investment dynamics, and production chains.

Brazil and the New Global Energy Map: Opportunities and Risks

This is a transition that is redefining the architecture of global influence and creating power hubs based not only on fossil fuel reserves, but on the ability to produce, store, and export clean energy reliably and at scale.

We are facing a contest for technological, diplomatic, and logistical leadership that goes far beyond traditional energy market logic. Countries that master the production and export of renewable sources—such as solar, wind, biomass, and green hydrogen—will not only lead the energy transition but will also sit at the center of geopolitical decision-making. They will attract investment, establish regulatory standards, and shape global value chains.

In this context, it is not enough to merely follow the transformation—we must lead it, with strategic vision, integrated planning, and strong institutional capacity.

Brazil’s Strategic Position

Brazil holds a unique position in this global energy chessboard. With one of the cleanest energy matrices among major economies, powered predominantly by renewables, and with abundant natural resources like sun, wind, water, and biomass, the country brings together a rare combination of assets. In addition, Brazil has a long-standing tradition of long-term energy planning and well-established institutions in the sector, providing technical predictability even amid political or market turbulence.

Closely following Brazil’s position in the global energy landscape, I emphasize another underutilized geostrategic asset: the country’s privileged location positions it as a natural bridge between Atlantic and Pacific markets. This opens the potential for Brazil to become a logistical hub for exporting energy—in the form of green hydrogen, biofuels, or even shipped electricity via submarine cables in the medium term. The growing international demand for clean and traceable energy, especially from Europe and Asia, enhances Brazil’s integration potential into decarbonized value chains.

Additionally, the expanding domestic demand for clean electricity and the ongoing green reindustrialization process create a solid internal market—capable of attracting industrial investments in equipment manufacturing, green semiconductors, fertilizers, and other segments of the energy value chain. In this scenario, Brazil is not merely a supplier of clean energy; it is a potential orchestrator of new, sustainable production and commercial arrangements.

Risks Limiting Brazil’s Energy Leadership

Despite these structural and natural advantages, Brazil’s potential leadership in the global energy transition is constrained by recurring challenges that hamper its ability to attract strategic investments and compete globally.

Regulatory instability and legal uncertainty remain the top concerns for long-term investors. Sudden changes in auction rules, subsidies, licensing, and taxation erode market confidence and raise capital costs.

Brazil’s energy infrastructure still faces critical bottlenecks—especially in transmission systems and export logistics. Large-scale projects are vulnerable to delays and economic losses when energy generation and transmission are not aligned.

The environmental licensing process, while essential to sustainability, suffers from a lack of predictability and speed. The absence of standardized criteria across federal, state, and municipal levels creates uncertainty and increases the risk of litigation.

Furthermore, Brazil lacks a robust and coordinated national strategy for green hydrogen—one of the most promising pathways for decarbonizing heavy industries. Clear targets, regulatory frameworks, and innovation incentives are urgently needed to secure a competitive position in this emerging market.

Global Opportunities to Be Seized

We are living through a pivotal moment in which global energy dynamics are creating new paths for growth, cooperation, and influence. For Brazil, this represents not only an opportunity for commercial integration but for strategic leadership in the reshaping of international energy flows. Countries with clean matrices, productive capacity, and international credibility are well-positioned to benefit. It’s up to us to decide: will we be spectators or protagonists?

Key global opportunities include:

• The exponential growth in demand for clean energy, driven by international decarbonization agreements, increasingly strict regulations, and the full adoption of ESG criteria by major corporations and investors. This trend increases the demand for sustainable and reliable suppliers.

• The reshaping of global value chains and the rise of green industrialization, creating room for the relocation of production units—particularly in countries with abundant renewable energy. Brazil could attract battery factories, low-carbon industrial inputs, and innovation centers.

• The expansion of strategic projects such as green hydrogen, offshore wind, and energy storage. These technologies not only diversify Brazil’s energy portfolio but also open long-term opportunities for job creation, new markets, and a strengthened export agenda.

• The concrete possibility of Brazil positioning itself as a key clean energy supplier to regions such as Europe, the United States, and the Asia-Pacific—markets that are rapidly implementing energy transition policies and seeking long-term partnerships with reliable suppliers.

  
  

The realization of these opportunities, however, depends on proactive positioning, integrated strategy, and strong public-private coordination. It’s time to turn potential into leadership.

Recommendations for Sustainable Energy Leadership

In this redefined global energy landscape, Brazil must move beyond relying solely on its natural resources. The country must build an institutional, regulatory, and strategic foundation to sustain its leadership. Achieving true green leadership requires long-term vision, coherent policies, and action across multiple fronts.

Based on my experience working with companies, governments, and multilateral organizations, I propose four priority pillars for Brazil’s next phase of energy policy:

1. Establish a robust, transparent, and stable regulatory framework: Policy predictability is key to attracting long-term investments. A modern regulatory environment that fosters innovation and ensures legal certainty is critical to the growth of emerging technologies such as green hydrogen, storage, and offshore wind.

2. Invest in integrated energy infrastructure: Sector competitiveness hinges on logistical efficiency and energy flow capacity. Investments in transmission networks, port modernization, and the creation of green export corridors are urgently needed to connect generation hubs with consumption centers and international trade routes.

3. Develop effective financial instruments to mobilize private capital: Public policies must act as catalysts for investment. Guarantee funds, tax incentives, and public-private partnerships are essential tools for mitigating risks and accelerating project bankability.

4. Lead an active and strategic energy diplomacy: Brazil’s global positioning requires active participation in multilateral forums, leadership in climate alliances, and bilateral agreements that establish the country as a trusted clean energy provider. Foreign policy must reflect Brazil’s ambition for green leadership.

   
   

Brazil as an Architect of the New Energy Order

The new global energy map will not be drawn solely by natural resource potential—but by a country’s ability to turn those resources into leadership, vision into policy, and vocation into measurable results. Brazil holds unique assets: an abundance of renewables, technical expertise, industrial diversity, and a privileged geostrategic position. But these strengths must be mobilized with purpose and disciplined governance.

As a specialist involved in project development, investment attraction, and international coordination, I state with conviction: energy leadership is not a given—it is a strategic achievement. It requires more than planning. It demands execution, governance, and a coherent global narrative.

We stand at a historic crossroads. If Brazil wants to claim a sustainable leadership role in the emerging low-carbon economy, we must act with ambition, boldness, and consistency. The time to prepare for the future is not tomorrow—it is now.

About the AuthorLaís Víctor is a specialist in renewable energy and Executive Director of Partnerships, with 14 years of experience in the energy sector. She works in business development, strategic alliances, and investment attraction for energy transition projects, with a focus on building sustainable ecosystems and fostering innovation in the global renewables market.

References

• International Energy Agency (IEA). Energy Statistics Data Browser – Data Tools. Paris: IEA, 2023.

• BloombergNEF. Global clean energy investment jumps 17% to USD 1.8 trillion in 2023. Bloomberg Professional Service, 2024.

• International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). World Energy Transitions Outlook 2024: 1.5°C Pathway. Abu Dhabi: IRENA, 2024.

• IPCC. AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023 – Longer Report. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2023.

• REN21. Record renewable energy capacity falls short of global goal, Reuters, 2024.

• Deloitte. 2025 Renewable Energy Industry Outlook. Deloitte Insights, 2024.

• International Energy Agency (IEA).

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Brazil and the New Global Energy Map: Opportunities and Risks